Turnout in Haltemprice and Howden at the 2005 election was just a smidgeon over 70 per cent. If turnout at the forthcoming by-election is a single vote less than that, David Davis’s kamikaze moment will all have been for nothing.
Here’s a turnout scorecard to help you gauge his success:
70-80 per cent: Well done, David. You’re a popular guy in your constituency but most people in the country still support 42 days
60-70 per cent: Oh, dear. Still, never mind, you’re back in a job at least.
50-60 per cent: Er, remind me why you did this?
40-50 per cent: You do know you’re not getting back on the front bench, don’t you?
30-40 per cent: “Here he comes – quick, look the other way!”