Predictions please

I WOULD be interested in knowing readers’ predictions of tonight’s result (and if your next question was going to be “Result of what?”, you’re on the wrong site).

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30 Comments

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30 responses to “Predictions please

  1. Steve

    I reckon (hope) a Labour Win with a Majority of 1,100 on a turnout of 25%

  2. Unfortunately Labour by a 1000 on a low poll. Conservatives to beat Lib Dems.

    And another by-election in a few months time when Mags stands down from Holyrood.

  3. Richard

    Labour Hold but with big fat chunky swing (15-20%) to the SNP, slight Conservative gain in vote share with around 35-40 turnout, Libs pushed into 4th.

    I also predict that if it’s a hold the BBC will hail it as the start of ‘Labour Fightback’ and will regularly feature Labour MPs on the telly saying things like “If the Tories can’t win Glasgow East they’ve no chance of winning the general election” followed a few days later by another humongous cockup by Gordon which will ruin what little good publicity has been garnered for Labour…

  4. wrinkled weasel

    Gut feeling, Labour majority of less than 1000.

  5. burma toad

    narrow Labour win

  6. Lab hold with a majority of 2500, followed by the Nats, then the trots, followed by the Tories, then LDs. Greens come last.

  7. Labour to hold by about 2,000 from Nats. Lib Dems hold 3rd over Tories but only just as Tories in Scotland start to feel Cameron bounce even in East End of Glasgow. Then Greens, not last Miller 2.0, as there will then be SSP, Solidarity, Freedom 4 Choice, Chris Creighton.

  8. My prediction is that I’ll fall asleep before the winner is declared.

    I’m looking forward to the rhetoric afterwards when all the parties say what a good result it was for them.

  9. Mike

    SNP win, majority around 2000

  10. John

    Labour win by 300 votes.

  11. alex porter

    There’s no evidence except 2 dodgy polls. It must be very close though and the last few hours of voting will be better for the SNP as that’s when people with jobs will be voting – that category is more likely to change votes..

    Given that you’ve no-one saying SNP I’ll predict them to win by 1, 000 votes.

    :O)

  12. As many recounts as you can imagine and a really close result. Hopefully not such that it comes down to how the SNP candidate voted, though that would be amusing.

  13. kaiser chief fan

    i predict a riot

  14. Alasdair

    For the last couple of weeks I’ve reckoned a 2,500 Lab majority … now though, I have a peculiar feeling in the pit of my stomach that the SNP might just squeeze it – of course that might just be my dinner wreaking it’s terrible revenge!

  15. Chris Creighton with a landslide

  16. Zorro

    Hmm. Personally I’d be very surprised if Labour manage to lose this seat, however the majority will be down, so the question is Labour by what majority.

    Stab in the dark – around 2000. Which will be hailed as a great victory, but obviously won’t be (a swing to the opposition of over 10% is not a real victory even if you squeeze the win).

    Lets be honest, if Gordon is /so/ unpopular that you manage to lose /this/ seat then I don’t think any of you Labour MPs will be wanting him to stay?

  17. Andrew F

    Labour hold, thankfully. Big, big swing to the SNP and a low turn-out from Labour voters… but not that big and not that. This is a good seat to be having a by-election in right now.

  18. Stu

    I predict the nice guy will finish last.

    Or the nice gal, I suppose – equal opportunity and all that.

  19. DMEA

    I predict the SNP to win, but by under 1,000 votes. Labour will come a very close second. The Tories come third with about 10% while the Lib Dems will get around 7%. Who cares about the others, although anyone who has ever attended a Glasgow election count can attest that the behaviour of the hard-left at these things is just appalling.

  20. Auntie Flo'

    A majority of less than a 100 – the result could go either way.

  21. Iain

    A narrow labour win of 500 votes with a turnout of 36%.

  22. Andrew

    Hope it’s not a Labour majority of one . The last two doors I knocked tonight had two SNP supporters who weren’t going to vote as the polling station was too far away

  23. Johnny Norfolk

    I would love to say different but I think Labour will just hold on. Why on earth they would vote for Labour is beyond me. I would vote SNP if I lived in Scotland as I think they will do far more for the people. Labour have taken Scotland for granted for years.

    Looking at Newsnight it will be very close with a bigger turnout than expected. It could be the SNP night after all. Lets hope so.

  24. Richard

    Slightly off topic but I can’t help notice that there wasn’t a blog post directing people to the Private Eye article entitled “Tom-foolery” which describes our esteemed blogger as possessing an “amazingly weak understanding of Britain’s rail system despite being in the post for over two years”…

  25. Martin Cullip

    Turnout 44% SNP by 3 figures

  26. Richard

    Ouch, ouch, ouch. BBC and Guardian and Times and Politicalbetting are all calling it an SNP Gain. Rumour is that paddypower is already paying out on bets for an SNP win.

    Margaret Curran’s got a face on her like her rabbit died and she can’t find anyone to buy the hutch…

  27. A 22% swing to SNP – I’m sure that the fightback starts here. Is there anyone in the Labour party with a spine? To oust this useless leader?

    Come on Harris start plotting.

  28. Alasdair

    Looks like that feeling in the pit of my stomach was right!

    According to the analysis in the unlikely event that such a result was repeated at a general election Labour would be left with only one seat in Scotland!

  29. I’m going with the SNP all the way!

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