And now the good news…

JUST in case you missed Anatole Kaletsky’s upbeat assessment of prospects for the economy, here are the best bits (link to the full article on the right):

“First, there is more and more evidence that the housing slump will do less damage to the British economy than is expected at present. Britain is in generally better shape to deal with a mortgage and housing crisis than any other important European economy.”

“While it is true that the OECD predicts that Britain’s GDP will decline in the third and fourth quarters this year, these declines are so tiny – just 0.1 per cent – as to be almost irrelevant, especially in a forecast where the margin of error is huge.

“All the other big European economies have suffered, in the second quarter of this year, GDP declines four or five times bigger than the ones predicted for Britain. The only reason why the German, French and Italian governments were not facing headlines about a ‘technical recession’ is that the OECD pencilled in growth projections microscopically above zero – 0.01 per cent for Germany – for the second half of this year.”

“Since the credit crunch started, the pound has fallen by 20 per cent against the euro and by 16 per cent on its trade-weighted index. This is already equal to sterling’s plunge after the ERM fiasco, which was followed by a powerful export boom. US experience strongly suggests that this devaluation, combined with the cautious mood of consumers, will soon trigger export growth in Britain as well.”

“The outlook should gradually improve from the start of next year. For the rest of Europe, by contrast, the economic troubles have only just started.”

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17 Comments

Filed under Economy, Media

17 responses to “And now the good news…

  1. richard

    Sounds like wishful thinking to me.

  2. Johnny Norfolk

    I wish it were true but there is no doubt things will be worse next year when the unemployment starts to kick in. You need to look for yourself and not cling to wishful thinking reports. as i have said before you are believing your own spin. The reality of what is happening is today I purchased a bottle of Dettol that 2 weeks ago was £2.15. Today it is £2.45. These price increases are getting worse with the drop in the poundas value. I find it amazing how out of touch you are with what is happening that you can quote that report. Still we will soon find out who is right & wrong.

  3. “The outlook should gradually improve from the start of next year. For the rest of Europe, by contrast, the economic troubles have only just started.”

    But you forget that the EU is our biggest export market and if it starts to go further into recession they won’t buy our goods.

    Hang on to your hat, Tom, we are in for a rough ride!

  4. Frank Davis

    So what was Alastair Darling on about with “the worst economic crisis in 60 years”? Was there an economic crisis 60 years ago? Back then Britain was emerging from the Second World War. The country was battered and bruised, and there was still rationing. I dug up this assessment of Britain in 1947. There was

    A widespread and prevalent mood of discouragement, apathy and lack of energetic optimism as to the future possibility of their nation exists among all classes and strata of the English.

    and

    A reported, and well-founded, drying up in inventive powers, originality, cultural contributions, etc., among the intellectuals and other elements in the population.

    and

    The rapid and expanding bureaucratization of all forms of social and economic life, under the Labor [sic] Government’s initiative.

    So not much different then and now. Looks like they had Big Brother and Pop Idol and Global Warming even then.

  5. Madasafish

    I read Kaletsky occasionally, He is far more optmistic than most other independent economists.

    If of course you are going to quote him in support of your case, then of course you cannot be selctive and have to take the rough with the smooth.

    On that basis, Darling should be fired for incompetence:
    “Crisis, what crisis? Alistair Darling’s just got his figures wrong”
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4649026.ece

    And Gordon should raise fuel prices:
    “Take a lead: keep petrol expensive
    One of Gordon Brown’s greatest mistakes was abandoning the fuel-tax escalator”
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article4023104.ece

    And Labour should resign now:
    “At last a party moves beyond the sound bite
    Our sense of hopelessness is misplaced. The Tories have shown there are still good ideas in British politics ”
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article4304837.ece

    🙂

  6. Johnny Norfolk

    Dont worry as Brown said in Scotland ( in his black tie that he does not wear at city dinners) it will all be over by Christmas.

  7. John

    So you go for the journo who is going for a boom.
    I initially went for Matthew Norman (Independent) whose headline was ” Anyone would be better than Gordon Brown- even Kerry Katona”
    I presumed he was going for a small(er) bust.
    I finally settled for John Redwood’s blog “That sinking feeling” which gave a more balanced view and the title said it all.

  8. lloyd

    Keep spreading the good news. Eventually someone in this real world may believe the fairy tales.

  9. Richard

    Still no word on the impending reshuffle?

    I suspect that we may need a new chancellor shortly.

  10. Clearly, a lot of people who visit this site would be distraught in the event of an economic upturn.

  11. Johnny Norfolk

    I agree with John. John Redwoods blog was very good. He is the first person to give some clear information on what is going on. Brown is just on another planet. Can he not see what is happening. I genuinely believe he does not understand the basics of real life. You cannot buck the market. The more you try the worse it becomes, its the very basics that Labour cannot or will not get their head around. I now know King Canute was Labour.

  12. James

    Tom, we would be ext.. extac… over the moon if that happened
    The 15 people who were made redundant at my son’s workplace yesterday would stand a better chance of getting a new job.
    My son may not then have to worry about if his job will be next
    My friend may then have some hope of not having his house repossessed.
    The value of my assetts (house,shares,pension pot) may then stabilize

    But then many of your visitors like me have been through this before, and we know an upturn aint gonna happen soon.
    Do you think we relish this economical climate just to slag off a Labour government?

  13. Madasafish

    Tom
    I would be ecstatic at an economic upturn.
    I struggle to make a reasonable living in this economic climate.
    In an upturn I do very well.

    Why we are so annoyed about it is:
    1. It was obvious it was going to happen. Read Roger Bootle.. he forecast it.
    2. the Chancellor forecast 2.5% growth this year – and at the time it was obviously pie in the sky
    3. the PM has kept denying any slowdown is occurring.
    4. Labour as a Governement are spendng out of control: the Budget Deficit is ballooning.

    The first step in improving things is to recognise you have a problem.

    Your Government is in denial … and I can quote you chapter and verse on that … “well placed” .. etc

    And then you make glib comments like” lot of people who visit this site would be distraught in the event of an economic upturn.”

    !

  14. Patchouli

    I’ll buck the trend here and support the broad view of Mr Kaletsky, particularly with his brief analysis of the EU’s future.

    Undoubtedly, there will be more than the annual average number of lost jobs and homes in the UK and nothing written in The Times or here will make those who will lose so much trust anything but the views of the miserablists.

    However, Gordon Brown is part of the problem. He must realise his role in the failure to inspire the much needed confidence and must go now before the doom mongers predictions become fact.

  15. richard

    I think that a lot of people who visit this site would be glad if the people who (in part) caused this downturn were to admit their error and call a general election so we can vote them out.

  16. There’s even more good news here, Tom:
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/COMMODITIES_REVIEW?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2008-09-05-18-33-39

    “Soybean prices tumbled Friday after the dollar continued its rally against the euro, giving investors more reasons to sell commodities that were bought as a hedge against inflation. Corn and wheat also fell sharply.”

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