It’s competition time again…

TIME once again to put your big psephological pants on and start offering your predictions for what might happen today in Glenrothes.

Given my record at predictions recently, I’m not going to offer my own opinion.

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20 Comments

Filed under Labour, Politics, SNP

20 responses to “It’s competition time again…

  1. anita

    Take an indication from
    http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/specials/politics/uk/by-elections/glenrothes/winning-party
    anyone thinking labour will win can presently collect £245 for £100 staked.

  2. Madasafish

    L:abour is going to lose another byelection.
    Reminds me of : John Major’s Government.

    And the outcome will be the same…

  3. John

    I predict a Labour landslide in the hope that Gordon will believe he has gained the mandate of the people and call a General Election in the new year.

    (Why don’t you predict an SNP win, Tom? Then Labour would be guaranteed to win)

  4. scotto voce

    SNP gain, majority of between 800 and 1200.

  5. anita

    The betting odds improve.
    Your £100 will win £333 in the event of a LAB>SNP>CON tricast outcome.
    Pile in and get rich.

  6. Brian Hall

    Hmmm, I originally thought Labour would take it with 1000 or so votes, but now I’m thinking SNP win 500.

  7. John

    Tom, are you the Telegraph’s unnamed Labour MP who has been getting a lot of “don’t know” doorstep responses?

  8. New Labour Model Citizen #23,122,949

    Tommy boy,

    You guys have certainly got the Beeb to knuckle down, haven’t you. Very noticeable that for all the recent bye-elections you wouldn’t know they were happening unless you were lucky enough to stumble on a link.

    Pages on Obama. Next to nowt on the collapse of the New Stasi junta.

  9. richard

    I’m inclined to go with Scotto on this one;
    SNP gain, majority of approx 1000 due to a variety of factors;

    1) Labour have totally taken the seat for granted (no constituency survey since the seat was created in ’05, I hear)

    2) The SNP have been heavy on the ground with over 1500 activists making an average of 2 visits each.

    3) Gordo is a major liability. His meeting with Maggie was a complete blunder that the SNP have publicised well, he’s not well liked and a personal appearance won’t sway nearly enough votes to make any difference (whilst simultaneously implicating him in personally losing the election)

    4) Using Sarah Brown was a complete error. She’s not well known and her involvement led to a raft of “stage-managed canvassing / spin” stories with minimal discernible benefit.

    5) Suggesting that Scotland wouldn’t have been strong enough to weather the financial slump was an error.

    6) Placing the election shortly after a probable Obama win was an error (‘incumbent party beaten by plucky underdog’ stories do not favour the Labour party at the moment)

    7) Shipping bus-loads of English MP’s up to Glenrothes was a big mistake and sends completely the wrong message.

    8) Placing the election so soon after the US election has drowned out any capital that Labour could have made from the Trump story.

    9) Placing the election so soon after the US election has made it impossible to make any “pork-barrel” announcements for Glentrothes (e.g. a big government contract for Rayhteon or Brand Rex) that may have moved some people back to Labour.

  10. Do you care what we think or do you agree with H. Blears that bloggers are mainly right-wing conspiracy theorists who should be ‘prepared to listen’?

    Or that students who legally download al Qaeda material from US Government websites should be held for six days?

    Or that your Government should go ahead with the ‘black boxes‘ that will log every email sent and website visited?

  11. Martin Cullip

    I predict Labour will lose and Labour MPs will have to snap out of their starstruck fawning over Obama and revert to the head-scratching whilst trying to work out why we in the UK are also crying out for ‘Change’.

  12. Chris' Wills

    Nope, no predicition except that Liebor will just scrape in and then declare it a turning point..

    Oh, my prediction skills are as good as Toms :o)

    richard,

    You missed off Jonah forcing HBOS to, possibly if Lloyds shareholders agree, be sold for very little to Lloyds.

  13. Will S

    I would rather have Labour win than the SNP win. My view is that if you do have to have lefties, at least have Unionist lefties.

    Taking (only) that into consideration, I believe that there is a slight chance Labour could hold the seat. Taking everything else into consideration I think the SNP might have a small advantage. However, for some reason I call Labour to win by the skin of their teeth. Don’t ask me why I think this, I don’t know myself.

    As for John’s comment (above). I read that article in the telegraph too and I thought of Tom (Mainly because he’s the only non-frontbench Scottish Labour MP I can name). However I then recalled this blog post not too long back.

    http://tomcharris.wordpress.com/2008/10/23/yours-anonymously/

    That should answer the question. Although I find it disturbing that Tom hasn’t bothered to deny it yet, since he moderates these comments. Have you taken to speaking off the record now? 😉

  14. wrinkled weasel

    If the SNP win this one Tom, will you take your head out of your bottom and finally realize that the New Labour Odyssey is over?

    I mean, how many “last straws” does it take, how many editions of “1984” must there be to wake you up to the level of distaste for the lies, the warmongering and the dilution of individual freedom that you have been a party to?

    How can you belong to a party that places the rights of countryside vermin above those of the unborn child?

    Are you dead to morality?

  15. Johnny Norfolk

    I know it would appear impossible, but I think the SNP is going to win. Now I hear you say, ‘no way’.

    Even the SNP will not win with Labour having over 10.000 yes 10.000 majority.
    I think people are just so sick of Labour that even in Scotland they will not have Labour.
    I know you think I am wrong with Brown being involved in the area but I do feel things are so bad for Labour.
    Brown is trying to say he is the best man to sort things out, but even the most stupid person in their heart of hearts know he is the problem not the solution.

    Just like with Obama. We need change.

    If Labour do win it will be all down to Toms hat. As if they do win he must promise never to wear it again well not in public anyway.

  16. Rapunzel

    I predict that whoever wins, all the losing parties will find a way of spinning that it was really an excellent result for them.

  17. Patchouli

    Labour. By a short nose.

  18. The result will be an upset whoever wins. Lib Dems set to lose their deposit is the last I heard. Incidentally, are you allowed to discuss such things while voting is still taking place? Scottish Socialists could take fourth place. UKIP vote tally expected to be under 50. Tory candidate expected to resign tomorrow morning. Have I missed anyone out?

  19. Martin Cullip

    Johnny Norfolk @ 3:19: “If Labour do win it will be all down to Toms hat.”

    Lucky he didn’t wear THAT tie then. 😉

  20. No Longer Anonymous

    Labour.Just.

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