Pollwatch: Tories take 15-point lead

THERE’S been a three point swing in support directly from the Liberals to the Tories, according to today’s ICM poll in The Guardian. It leaves the Tories with a 15-point lead over us. 


The figures for each of the parties are (with the change since last month in brackets):

  • Conservative 45 (+3)
  • Labour 30 (no change)
  • LibDems 18 (-3).

If that were repeated in a general election, it would leave Cameron with a majority of just over 100. So much for the optimism generated by The Telegraph’s poll on Wednesday.



Filed under Conservative Party, Labour, LibDems, Media

21 responses to “Pollwatch: Tories take 15-point lead

  1. Chris' Wills

    There’ll be another poll tomorrow, so that might brighten your day; who knows.

    Only one poll matters and I suspect that won’t come for a while, though I might be pleasantly suprised.

  2. C Jones

    You’re not really surprised are you? The NuLab government is one to be feared. I know they frighten me. The Damien Green episode is an utter disgrace, unworthy of a democracy. I would never, in a million years, trust the Brown government to hold my biometric information on an id card. This episode shows terrorism can mean anything the government chooses it to mean. Any of us could be next for daring to speak out. Never mind, another nail in NuLab’s coffin.

  3. Rory

    Tom, I’m a Conservative supporter (we love your blog!) but even I admit the polls are all over the place. One week the lead is 3%, now it’s 15%… a few months ago it was 20%!

    It would seem to me that the 20% and 3% polls were rogue. The real lead is probably somewhere between 6 and 10%. Where it’ll be in May 2010 though… that’s what counts.

  4. Andy

    Of course I’d be delighted if that were the resultof the real poll, but there’s a way to before the bottler calls it I suspect

  5. Will Stobart

    I think that those who were complaining about yourself only posting poll results when in your favour should apologise.

    But I also expect that that was what you had in mind when making this blog post in the first place, right? 😉

    Also, well done on your TiP performance. I loved the ‘serious people’ gag.

  6. Donkey Kong

    Goodbye, New Labour. And goodbye, Tom Harris. Neither of you will be missed.

  7. Are you flirting with me, Donkey? You are, aren’t you? You’re flirting!

  8. richard

    Presumably the fieldwork for this poll pre-dates the whole “locking up your political opponents” fiasco which I suspect may swing a few floating voters away from Labour and towards more libertarian parties like the Conservatives and Lib-dems.

  9. Mark

    Labour has created a situation where it has isolated and peed off many previous supporters, and now here today gone tomorrow Mondeo man and woman voters have gone back to the Tories it has left a huge void in support and on the ground activists.
    I speak as a Labour member and one of many who warned that this would happen but nobody too any notice. Now it is all coming home to roost.

  10. Martin Cullip

    Richard wrote: “… libertarian parties like the … Lib-dems”


    Apart from that, good point Richard. 🙂

  11. John

    Somehow Tom, with a personal majority of 10,832 votes in 2005, I don’t think you’re too worried about the next election 😉

  12. Johnny Norfolk

    Tom, it will only get worse. People have had enough of Labour, and this poll was before Browns police state arrested a member of the opposition. Mrs N who is not interested in politics would not believe this had happened, when I showed her the reports she said “that is the end of Labour.” The one thing that transends politics in Britain is freedom. Labour have not spoken up for freedom and have laid down before Brown and his bully boys.

  13. sean malone

    brown should be arrested asap

  14. Donkey Kong

    Don’t flatter yourself, Harris. You’ll be a lot less smug when you’re on the dole queue in 2010.

  15. wrinkled weasel

    John said, “Somehow Tom, with a personal majority of 10,832 votes in 2005, I don’t think you’re too worried about the next election”

    After Glasgow East, I wouldn’t bet on that, John.

    The only consolation for having to wait until 2010 for the election (that is of course unless Brown cancels it, citing national security) is seeing a whole raft of “Portillo” moments – seeing the great and the good mount the platform with cheesy forced smiles in order to listen to the truth they will finally grasp.

    I shall be particularly keen to see Alistair Darling, who will have to be parachuted into a “safe” seat, stand and watch as resentful locals give him a well deserved kick in the polls, and Jacqui Smith, who is also at risk.

    One of my memories of 1997 was to spot William Waldegrave at about 7 o’clock on a hot May election eve, in Bristol. He was looking sweaty and defeated. That was the moment I knew the game was up for the Tories. That was my “Portillo” moment. He was succeeded in Government as Chief Secretary to the Treasury by Alistair Darling. What goes around..

  16. 3% is the margin of error. The poll means little really. The consistent trend (except when money the pocket was hinted at) is consistent. Nothing like 60% 20% in Major’s day though, so all to play for.

  17. Tom,

    The polls are currently all over the place. I would bear in mind Smithson’s rule though.

  18. Patrick

    If it’s Brown, flush it…

  19. Nick the Greek

    With a bit of luck the Labour party will end up like the Canadian tories a few years ago, wiped out.

  20. iain ker

    I think the real problem with New Labour as a government is that they have failed to get the message of their many successes across to the electorate.

    Perhaps they need to spend more taxpayers’ money on PR consultants.

  21. iain ker

    Right now that I’ve picked myself of the floor and wiped away my tears of mirth, time to get serious.

    Let’s have a look at Nulabour’s report card after 11 years of quote unquote government to see if it provides any pointers as to why they are so low in the polls.

    Education (x3) – FAIL
    Unemployment – FAIL
    Immigration – FAIL
    The Economy – FAIL
    Crime – FAIL
    Honesty – FAIL
    Financial System- FAIL

    Enough to be getting on with I’d say.

    So who needs psephologists when the evidence is so crystal clear eh.

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