I don’t know what to make of these polls at the moment. Some weeks there’s a definite swing of support towards Labour and other weeks, the Tory lead appears insurmountable.
The greatest threat to a Tory victory is their own members. You only have to take a look at some of the comments posted here and elsewhere to find Tories declaring that “the Labour party will end up like the Canadian tories a few years ago, wiped out,” or “(Cameron’s) doing for the jobs of 150 and counting Nulabour MPs at the next election“. There are many others.
This can only mean that there are an awful lot of Tories out there who have assumed that the next election is in the bag, just as there were, presumably, some Labour members who assumed 1992 would be a walk-over (though I never actually met any). That complacency – shared, I know, by at least some members of the Conservative Parliamentary Party – is the Tories’ greatest weakness.
I don’t know what these polls actually mean or what the true state of party support is in the country at the moment. But I really, really hope that more and more Tories continue to assume they’ve won even before a single vote is cast.