Pollwatch: Tory lead down to one point

FOLLOWING a tip-off from Ani, I’ve had the chance to have a look at the latest Comres poll over at LabourHome (change on previous month in brackets):

  • Conservative 37 (-6)
  • Labour 36 (+4)
  • LibDems 17 (+5)
  •  
    This follows the ICM poll at the weekend which put 15 points between us and them.

    I don’t know what to make of these polls at the moment. Some weeks there’s a definite swing of support towards Labour and other weeks, the Tory lead appears insurmountable.

    The greatest threat to a Tory victory is their own members. You only have to take a look at some of the comments posted here and elsewhere to find Tories declaring that “the Labour party will end up like the Canadian tories a few years ago, wiped out,” or “(Cameron’s) doing for the jobs of 150 and counting Nulabour MPs at the next election“. There are many others.

    This can only mean that there are an awful lot of Tories out there who have assumed that the next election is in the bag, just as there were, presumably, some Labour members who assumed 1992 would be a walk-over (though I never actually met any). That complacency – shared, I know, by at least some members of the Conservative Parliamentary Party – is the Tories’ greatest weakness.

    I don’t know what these polls actually mean or what the true state of party support is in the country at the moment. But I really, really hope that more and more Tories continue to assume they’ve won even before a single vote is cast.

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    12 Comments

    Filed under Blogging, Conservative Party, Labour, LibDems, Polls

    12 responses to “Pollwatch: Tory lead down to one point

    1. Chris' Wills

      A poll you like then :o)

      Don’t worry Tom, whenever the election is called I’ll fly back to vote.

    2. Zorro

      I think you’ve lost the next election already, I’m not a Tory though, I’m just anti-Labour and will support who-ever has the best shot at getting rid of you.

    3. ssprenfrewshire

      Polls are never actually wrong, but they are not useful for guaging opinion. The reason is that people get confused, the get their facts wrong and….they lie.

      1992 is one proof of that, but so was 2003 in Scotland, when my party, the SSP got 6 seats and 170,000 people voting for them.

      Nobody imagined that. It is only now, with the horrors of the split, that we realise, just how amazing that time was.

    4. Andy

      There are some strange anomalies in this poll, like the tories being ahead of labour inWales (??) and labour being ahead of the tories in the latter’s heartlands. Anyway, there’s only one that matters eh? When with the bottler bring it on – at the last possible moment as befits the dithering coward no doubt

    5. richard

      The last Comres poll was very pessimistic about Conservative polling figures too. I seem to recall there was some issue about their failure to weight the figure to reflect that public sector workers, single parents and unemployed are more likely to vote Labour and to be around during the day with time to answer pollsters questions.

      Personally I’ll stick with Yougov. Their figures have been borne out by several recent (actual) elections…

    6. madasafish

      Meanwhile ITV and C4 report the police say they were told to investigate “a national security” leak.
      And FOUND NOTHING.

      You cannot make it up.

      I am no lawyer but if Green sues for wrongful arrest and violations under the Human Rights Act… I reckon we are talking £100,000s .

      So the police are getting their revenge in first….

    7. LT

      “But I really, really hope that more and more Tories continue to assume they’ve won even before a single vote is cast.”

      Well you can hope in one hand and crap in the other see which fills first. I doubt you will get your marching orders at the next election given the nature of your constituency. That’s provided of course that the Great Leader allows us to have an election. However many of your colleagues will join the millions on the dole queues if there is any justice. I for one will nit be shedding any tears for them.

    8. Johnny Norfolk

      In your dreams. Its like Hitler in the Berlin Bunker sending phantom armies to fight at the front.

      Well done on destroying the Pound.

    9. Pete B

      One interesting thing in the polls is the position of the LibDems. For me they’re at least 5 points down on where I would expect them to be – at least come election time.

      What’s going on? Are they being squeezed because there’s a viable Conservative party for the first time in 15 years and the Tories have taken their 5% (or so)? Maybe – but I think a lot of people would say that Vince Cable has been far and away the most effective and inventive Opposition speaker on the economy. Whether or not, if the LibDems pick up on the run-in to an election, where are they going to take their votes from? The Tories need to be over 40% to have a majority in the House. Even on good polls they don’t have a huge margin. 1 to 3% to the LibDems and Labour picking up 1 to 3% on the run-in is all it needs.

      Cameron is playing the Damian (was his mum one of those Hesse-obsessed hippies I wonder?) Green distraction card for all it’s worth because the Do-nothing-Dave is starting to stick. Look at what the polls are saying about who’s best on the Economy – and compare it with just a few weeks ago.

      “Say not the battle nought availeth …”

      Incidentally for those repeating the spin on Damian Green, Brian Barder has a good exposition.

    10. Tacitus

      Polls changed? That’s because life is GOOD under New Labour, says Elizabeth Malcolm, 43, of Glasgow, who has never done a day’s work in her life, nor have her children.

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7746174.stm

      Ma’am. As a taxpayer, may I say it is an honour and a privilege to work my bollocks to support the likes of you and your family.

    11. Nick the Greek

      I voted Labour twice but never again. I don’t particularly like the Tories but I will vote for whoever is best placed to get rid of them.

    12. Rapunzel

      “Polls changed? That’s because life is GOOD under New Labour, says Elizabeth Malcolm, 43, of Glasgow, who has never done a day’s work in her life, nor have her children.”

      So, this person has been living off the state, instead of working, for, let’s assume, 25 years.

      The last 11 of those have been under a Labour administration.

      And the previous 14 would have been under?

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