JUST been told about the ICM poll in tomorrow’s Guardian:
Conservatives: 38 (down 7)
Labour 33 (up 3)
LibDems: 19 (up 1)
Filed under Polls
Tagged as guardian, ICM
Lets have an election then. Quick before the Post Office is sold off to the Dutch.
Tom no matter what the polls tell you, Its the end for Labour in England believe me.
I refer the honourable gentleman to the comment I made to one of his earlier postings about opinion polls.
An interesting poll, but I still think the spectacular failure of Brown’s bailout will come back to bite him soon enough.
Quick question – why do all politicians believe polls only when they show what they want?
Most odd behaviour.
“Quick question – why do all politicians believe polls only when they show what they want?”
You mean this? Or this?
Please encourage Gordon to call an election ASAP then Tom…. Seriously… Please…
Because frankly this country will be permanently broken by 2010.
I have a number of reservations about MORI as their fieldword reports state that they telephone canvass landlines during the daytime.
Clearly most people who answer their home phone during the day are either unemployed, public sector workers on sick leave or single mothers, all of which are far more likely to vote Labour. They then “weight” the results (surely a completely arbitrary process?) to get their results which are invariably more pessimistic for the Conservatives than from other pollsters.
Historically telephone polls show increased support for Tories not Labour, Richard. All the polls now agree the trend away from the Tories and towards Labour however.
You forgot pensioners, and I’d hazard a guess that you don’t trust any of the polling companies untill they put up the results you like.
Were they suitably trustworthy for you when Tories were on the up?
From what I’ve seen most polls are consistantly showing the Tories slipping.
Another thing – landline polls miss a huge chunk of the demographic, especially the under 30s, who tend only to have mobiles these days.
Again – whatever gets you through the night. I’m not going to knock something that cheers simple folk up.
Polling companies like MORI tend to get commissioned to conduct polls in the wake of major events (e.g. party conferences, after news events, etc) which will consistently tip in favour of whichever party is in the press the most.
Labour’s getting some good coverage which is
bound to weigh in their favour.
Telephone polls haven’t stood in favour of the Conservatives since the late 1980’s, doubly so now that working under-30’s have almost no demographic representation in landline polls.
This from ConHome:
“…we are getting into the period when I’m slightly wary of polling results anyway as Christmas shopping starts to skew the people who are at home to take phone calls. ” Anthony Wells, UK Polling Report
Well, would you credit it Richard.
Looks like the “unemployed, public sector workers on sick leave or single mothers, all of which are far more likely to vote Labour” have gone out shopping and aren’t at home to answer their phones after all!
Surely that would swing in Labour’s favour?
The only people who’ll be at home to take calls from polling muppets will be the unemployed and the indolent (e.g. Labour voters) whereas people who’ve got a bit of cash + jobs (e.g. Conservative voters) will be out doing their patriotic duty and buying chinese-made tat from Argos or working hard to try and pay their mortgages.
Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:
You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. ( Log Out / Change )
You are commenting using your Twitter account. ( Log Out / Change )
You are commenting using your Facebook account. ( Log Out / Change )
You are commenting using your Google+ account. ( Log Out / Change )
Connecting to %s
Notify me of new comments via email.
Who lives in Nuneaton anyway?