Pollwatch: Huge swing to Tories

POLITICAL Betting has details of a new Ipsos/Mori poll giving the Tories a 14-point lead over Labour – up ten points since the previous survey.

The numbers are:

  • Conservatives 44 (+5)
  • Labour 30 (-5)
  • LibDems 17 (+2)

  Bugger.

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39 Comments

Filed under Polls

39 responses to “Pollwatch: Huge swing to Tories

  1. John

    *Crosses fingers for Jackie Smith to lose her seat*

    It still surprises me that you morons (and by “you” I mean Labour MP’s AND grassroot supporters) still don’t get why the public are so disenfranchised, it’s because you’ve abandoned New Labour. We all voted for New Labour, THREE TIMES. In the current climate, with New Labour policies and a clear New Labour ethos you’d still be ahead of the Tories.

    If you want to win the election, then bring back New Labour. Simple really.

  2. Johnny Norfolk

    Tom

    This is only the begining of the end for your party.
    Its your own fault. you still think money grows on trees. A great party at spending but not of earning.

  3. Rory

    I trust you’ll be following the advice given to all you Labour supporters by Ben Wegg-Prosser on Labourist (http://www.labourist.org/moving-on-from-doing-nothing/):

    “Stop repeating tired lines about the Conservative party being a “do nothing” party, clearly they have ideas they’re just not the right ones.”

    With your wit Tom, this should be a doddle.

  4. Jim Baxter

    Let’s look at some facts. I’ve been all over the newspapers (that scandal with the rich, elderly spinster, that was me), all over the blogosphere and, and this may be my fault, I’ve never once seen the following:

    Brown hides behind the mantra that the recession started in America.

    But it did. Our banks followed. If they hadn’t their shareholders would have thrown the management out demaning their replacement by people who were more aggressive in chasing profits. It;s called a non-zero sum game. Prisoner’s Dilemma. Look it up if you’ve never heard of it. And how apt, this week, when we lost Patrick McGoohan.

    He did nothing about it, he didn’t prepare for it.

    Not like the Tories then. What should he have done? Kept money back while the electorate were clamoring as usual for more to be spent on the NHS? You can argue that money spent on the NHS could have been better spent and I would agree, but spending is what the voters wanted.

    He didn’t warn that this was about to happen. That would be called a self-fulfilling prophecy had he done so. There would have been faux fury from the Tories that he was ‘talking Britain down’. Just what he turns on them if they try it. That’s politics.

    I don’t like Brown. I don’t trust him, I think he has serious personality problems. But many of our leaders have had serious personality problems. Churchill was a manic-depressive alcoholic. Eden was a neurotic. Macmillan’s wife was having it away with Bob Boothby. Wilson was an unprincipled conniving sh*t with a brown tongue when it came to the Royals. Heath was Heath and what could be worse than that? Callaghan was another neurotic hiding behind a fake avuncularity. MT was an obsessive-compulsive, Blair a narcissist. Only Major was half-normal. Much good it did him. Although, unlike many, I can see what he saw in her that he saw something in.

    So why pick on Brown? Send me the posters Tom. I’ll put them in the window. Me mind’s made up. I’m slow, but I get there.

  5. richard

    Great line from Osborne today.

    To paraphrase; “Gordon hasn’t saved the world, he hasn’t even saved the banks…”

  6. Silent Hunter

    Wow! This is a new experience for me.

    A Labour blog that doesn’t obliterate free speech by pre-moderation.

    How refreshing.

    Tom – based solely on the fact that you have a Genesis connection :O) (yes I used to like them too) I just want to ask you how you can support a government that behaves just like the worst excesses of Thatcherism …….on speed?

    How anyone who even begins to grasp the concept of democracy could stand to be associated with such an authoritarian, right wing government bent on criminalising all of its citizens, si beyond me.

    Is this really what you got into politics for?

    Face it……..Labour are finished……….and deservedly so.
    With luck they will perish completely to allow a true left of centre party to rise from the ashes.

    Hopefully, a party YOU would be proud to be a member of and one that all of us who are disenfranchised would be proud to join.

  7. Silent Hunter

    Oh I see!

    Another Pre-moderated Labour blog. :O(

    So much for free speech then…..I take it back.

  8. This reminds me of the end of ‘The Italian Job’:

    We’re balancing right on the edge.
    Very slowly, move this way.

    Very slowly.
    Don’t make a sharp movement.

    Come as far up this end
    as you can get.

    Watch it, watch it. Watch it, Bill!

    The gold is pulling it over the edge.
    We’ll have to get it back.

    Get back! Get back!

    Now hold still.
    Don’t move. Don’t move at all.

    Don’t no one get out the door,
    neither. Otherwise we’ll all go.
    Edge back as far as you can go, to
    cou… to counterbalance me. Now…

    Hang on a minute, lads.
    I’ve got a great idea.

    Er… Er…

  9. John

    @Jim Baxter

    The recession did NOT start in America. It started in our own back yard while the government sat on it’s hands. Economic growth is controlled by the savings rate. People spend and the economy increases, the money runs out and the economy cuts back and people save, then people spend again etc…

    It’s cyclical. The aim is to have the economy grow steadily, that’s STEADILY over time.

    What we had in this country was excessive spending, then when the money dried up we turned to credit in a BIG way. The economy just grew and grew and grew, but it was an economy on borrowed money, and thus an economy on borrowed time. It was overheating, and when Gordon was told of this in the commons he replied with “I have always been right, and he has always been wrong” to much cheering.

    People on £15,000pa were amassing £50,000+ in debts, banks were offering 110% mortgages at 20 times a person’s annual salary, openly betting their futures on house prices never going down again. Yet, what did this government do? NOTHING.

    Yes, our banks bought lots of bad debt from the states, but the overwhelming problem is that we are now a nation of people in debt, not banks. The next boom can only come from savings, yet people have too much debt to repay to even begin to save in the levels we need.

    So, we’re up shit creek without a paddle. This has happened once before btw, the great depression of the early 20th century.

    We haven’t hit rock bottom yet, that’s the worrying thing.

    So when the government tells you that this was inherited from overseas, please remember how out of control credit was getting here, yet they just sat on their hands and enjoyed the artificially high growth. And the next time the government tells you that bailouts are needed to restore growth, remember the economic principal of the savings rate, and how all they are doing is trying to reinflate the toxic bubble that has now burst.

  10. Downsman

    Brown is completely out of his depth. His incompetence may not have been the sole cause of our problems but by God it s going to be our downfall. The only downside to the Tory leap in the polls is that frit Brown will bottle an election again this year and we will have to wait until 2010 before others get a chance to slowly pull us out of this mess.

  11. Loki

    Don’t you mean “buggered”?(metaphorically, of course)

  12. Loki

    btw, Richard, the BBC aren’t reporting that bit of the quote! Non-biased broadcasting, once again!

  13. richard

    @ Mark Sullivan
    – Except we haven’t got any gold. Gordon sold it all…

    @ Loki
    Why does that not surprise me in the slightest?

    You’d think that those clever bods at the BBC would realised that unless they stop acting like Labour’s cheerleaders they’re likely to get short shrift from the Conservatives in 2013 when their next budget review comes round.

  14. Jim Baxter

    John,

    With all due respect, you are a moron. Try answering one of the points that I raised earlier. What was the UK government supposed to do when the driver of the world economy, the USA, – and it was Clinton who lifted FDR’s rules – went its own way.

    Oh, and try to learn the difference between it’s and its.

  15. Now, now boys, none of that. I want you to shake hands and be friends, okay? Jim? Do you have something to say to John? What’s that? I don’t think John heard you… okay, that’s good. Now, John, do you have something to say to Jim? Well…? Good, now please go outside and play and don’t let me see you back in here again.

  16. Auntie Flo'

    Jim Baxter said

    “I don’t like Brown. I don’t trust him, I think he has serious personality problems. But many of our leaders have had serious personality problems…Churchill…Eden…Macmillan..Wilson…Heath…Callaghan…Blair…”

    You’ve hit the nail on the head there, Jim.

    Why do so many of our Prime Ministers become so bl**dy weird once they’ve been in office for a while? I support David Cameron now because he’s halfway normal. Yet will he remain normal after a few years in horrible isolation in the premiership? Obama too, will he go crazy after a time? Please God that they both put policies in place which ensure that they don’t.

    With many notable exceptions, including Cameron and Tom (at present) isn’t there something about politics and the sort of people who are attracted to it that predisposes them to lose their noddles once in they become ministers? And is the factor that pushes so many over the edge, far too much power and responsibility?

    I think we need to help these poor people, our politicians, by removing some of their power and making them fully accountable to all of us. We need more direct democracy to share the strain of all that power.

  17. Jim Baxter

    Tom, you are a bad man. I’m starting to like you.
    (Young fella me lad as WW hasn’t quite got around to stating yet). Please discontinue your reasonableness so that I can return to my normal levels of prejudice and aggression.

    Oh, and here’s something else. We are in the positi0n we are in because of insufficent regulation, according to the Tories, and the right have always whined about how much the government interferes in their liberties.
    I dunno. I’m too stupid. Tell me how that makes sense. No, really.

  18. robtro

    As much as polls interest me and all, the panic in the city has begun again and, personally, I’m seriously worried about might happen if its not contained, the last round knocked the whole system down to running in “safe mode” take a large swathe of jobs and companies with it, another sustained round of serious panic like before across all the different markets could see pure carnage….

    whelp…

  19. John

    “With all due respect, you are a moron.”

    Haha! 😀

    There’s just no way of answering that without looking like you’re trying to make your e-penis look bigger, is there? Damn. He seems to have got me on this one.

    He’s right tbf. I am a moron 😦 😉

  20. I’m sure this is nothing to do with the Heathrow decision, right?

  21. Jim Baxter

    John,

    I liked you before and now I like you more. But what would you do instead?

    Simple answers will suffice.

    I have no imagination and no creativity so I am exempt on the grounds of being mediocre. But since some are so willing to shout about what the government should do differently tell us what it is that they should do. You have willing ears at your disposal.

    Right. I’ll tell you something that I’ve never told anyone else. It occurred to me that A Darling is some kind of wimp who will say what is his master’s voice requires for the sake of his own position in a doomed government.

    Then I looked at him for a few seconds. I didn’t like what I saw. But I didn’t see someone so treacherous that he would sacrifice the country for his career. If you can see what I can’t, let me know. If you can get your perfidious thoughts by that guardian of Zanulab Tom Harris, that is.

    I’m always ready to learn.

  22. Jim Baxter

    John,

    You are a sweet man and i would not lay a finger upon your personaility (Flann O’Brien).

    Tommorow prepare for war as I shall prepare for peace. History is a nightmare in which I’m trying to get a good night’s sleep. (Saul Bellow – Humbodlt’s Gift’ – via James Joyce, ‘History is a nightmare from which I am trying to awake’.

    Hi Prof. I bet you wish you knew something, anything.

    I’m not clever. I can remember a few diverse scraps of things. I don’t pretend that that makes me clever. I prefer it that way. Honsesty. truth, confusion. Something that people will respond to, understand, something that will make them have more faith in themselves because it turns out that you, at best, are no cleverer than they are

    Hi Gordon. Remember me?

  23. Jim Baxter

    Auntie Flo’

    I could not agree more. Given the recent rappoachment between Iain Dale and Kerry McCarthy I think you and I should meet to discuss, either nothing at all apart from the temperature of the tea, or the disgusting state of ‘me-too’ groupie politics. Prof Clementine is invited to pour the tea but, especially – minor pleb that he is – he will be watched lest he spit in it ,and certainly will be held upside down thereafter until he admits he is despicable.

  24. Auntie Flo'

    I just watched some recordings of Billy Fury on Youtube. Didn’t intend to, I ended up there after watching Alan Price. Watching Fury’s later stuff was cringeworthy – like watching some of our politicians.

    Fury was pathologically shy, in poor health and totally unsuited to the stress of being a pop star. In many of his stage recordings he visibly hyperventilates. Yet some agent obviously saw him, thought he was a money making Elvis look-alike and went to work on Billy to turn him into an all singing and dancing parody of Elvis – himself, the parody king.

    In the early recordings, like Play It Cool, there’s this not bad looking young man with an okish voice and mild eccentricity, attempting to impersonate Elvis. Quite soon, however, Fury becomes really painful to watch and so weird. The ‘I think you’re swell’ recording is one of the weirdest. Fury’s psychologically fragmenting under the strain of maintaining the pop star facade when he has insufficient talent and is aging into his late 20s or early 30s (!). Watching him is embarrassing and creepy. If Fury had packed it in while he was ahead, he might have retained some dignity.

    It’s the same with some of our politicians, taking on roles they aren’t equipped for, then hanging on to positions and power long after they should have thrown in the towel.

    The public can ‘vote’ out jaded pop stars with our wallets. We ought to be able to vote out politicians who’ve lost the plot and who are damaging our country before their term is up too.

  25. timbone

    Tom, I feel sorry for you. I don’t say that in a patronising way, I empathise with your predicament. I can tell from this blog that you are a genuine guy with humanitarian feelings, a social conscience, nicely rounded off with a sense of humour and appreciation of fun things in entertainment.

    You have done well to succeed in winning and holding a seat as an MP. You didn’t hold your position in the Dept of Transport, maybe because you are not a yes man, maybe because you are not a cardboard cutout nulabourite. I would think, and I hope that you are one of the few labour MPs who will hold their seat in the next general election.

    It must be very frustrating for you. The party you represent is not the party you originally joined and eventually stood for and represent. I am sure that you would seriously consider defecting to a party which is more representative of your true beliefs, unfortunately, that party does not exist.

    I cannot think of anything more to say right now. You never know Tom, maybe when your party is decimated at the next election, people like you and Kerry McCarthy, and yes, even Paul Flynn, will be the core of a resurgence of true democracy, where parliament represents the people who elected them, not a ‘choleric’ control body who step on people to achieve their personal idealism, but a more ‘flegmatic’ and ‘sanguine’ labour party, with just a touch of ‘melancholy’.

  26. Just for the record Tom – and please excuse my late night incursion – you said at the beginning of this blog:

    “Pollwatch: Huge swing to Tories”

    Good, isn’t it? But don’t get too excited.

    I know you are looking forward to the next twenty years in opposition – think of all those directorships you’ll be able to amass if you don’t have anything to do as a Labour MP sitting on a safe majority. I’m sure all your old contacts in the transport industry will be clamouring to hire your expertise after your two year stint as a Minister.

    But, this is just one poll. OK, the last three showed there is, perhaps, a trend back to the Conservatives – the “do-nothing party” – but when Peter, Alistair and Alan – ooh, and don’t forget Harriet – get their acts together then things could change.

    But I doubt it!

  27. Sean Morris

    The credit crunch which I think result in a depression started in Asia not in the US.

    All that stuff we bought that said “made in china” resulted in Chinese people making large savings from earning which found their way into Western Economies through the money markets. (mainly the bond market where Banks were lending from, the interbank lending was a result of this not the cause of the high volumes of money)

    To keep their goods competitive, the Chinese bought lots of US bonds/dollars which kept interest rates low in the West, which encouraged us (people, business and even our tax rich govt)to borrow heavily.

    If Crash Gordon had regulated the banks properly and told the BoE to make sure credit growth was not above economic growth, as well as encourage people and business to save, which higher interest rates encourage, then things would not be great now but they would not be disastrous.

    AND what about all those boffins we employ in the BoE, Treasury and the laughable FSA? you would have thought a few concerns might have been raised?

    But the banks were paying billions in tax revenue, which made spend thrifts like Crash Gordon happy, so he looked the other way, and believed in the myth of his own genius.

    He borrowed because he believed in his own ideology of ending the economic cycle, when he should have been paying down govt debts, and limiting Govt spending growth.

    In my lifetime we have had three disastrous Labour Govts. 64-70, 74-79, 97-?, all have wrecked the public accounts and handed debt immorally to future generations so they can pretend they are more caring than others. Twice 76 and now, they have effectively bankrupted the country.

    They have no idea about balancing accounts, managing complex systems such as economies, or most importantly wealth creation and retention, as they say the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

    Politics in my opinion is a balance between Liberalism and Conservatism, we have in us all both in different measures. When we put the Labour Party into the history books for good and politics returns to its natural form of Liberal v Conservative, the country will be released from the cruel immoral monster that is the Labour Party.

    Its not just a question of replacing Labour with the Conservatives, its a question of putting the Labour party to death, and never giving it another chance.

    And if you don’t think this cant get any worse, then have a look at another bubble that the Govt should worry about, the bond market bubble, if this goes this year, the Govt WILL not have any money and large parts of Govt will close, unless of course there is plenty of printing press monopoly money to pay the bills with? In which case a fuse will be lit for a very big explosion of inflation.

  28. Off topic probably, but how will you be voting on the Freedom of Information (Parliament) Order 2009 vote on Thursday, Tom?

    Apparently there’s going to be a bit of a to-do about it if it passes, since most tax-payers don’t like MP’s deliberately going out of their way to hide how they spend our money on frivolities and luxuries. Particularly heading into a recession…

    Of course, I know an honest principled ethical MP such as yourself will be voting it down.
    Right?

    Right?

  29. Remember that polls is polls – nothing more.

    The only one that counts is the one at an election – and much can happen between now and then.

    But I can live in hope … can’t I?

  30. ani

    Tories get over excited and comment madly and in force when the polls are in their favour – and fall out viciously when they aren’t.
    It creates hours of enjoyment reading Tory blogs.
    Labour are generally more circumspect.

    Anyone taking an interest in polling realises that in these unusual times we’re in seesaw city.
    Calm down dears…long way to go…lots of work to be done.

  31. richard

    @ Ani
    “Labour are generally more circumspect.”

    Yes, it’s very easy to be circumspect when you’re consistently behind. I remember being quite circumspect in early 1997…

  32. Dave H.

    “Bugger”

    That’s a homophobic exclamation, surely?

    Many other Labour MPs would have said something like:

    “opinion polls go up and down all the time the Government is too busy getting on with the job to take any notice at a time of financial crisis unlike the do-nothing Tories…”

    Which is why people read your blog and not theirs.

    Perhaps this openess also sometimes lands you in trouble. I hope Gordon doesn’t ever “phone” you.

    Consider the risk you are facing: in the UK, an air rifle producing a muzzle energy of more than the legal limit of 16.2 Joules is classed as a lethal firearm requiring a licence. That’s roughly 170 metres/second for a 1g pellet.

    By contrast, a Nokia 3100 weighing 87g only needs to be travelling at more than 19.3 m/s to exceed the legal limit, and humans can throw things much faster than that.

    Please be careful, Tom!

  33. Rapunzel

    @ani

    The trouble is, with Obama about to be inaugurated, future world leaders will evidently need to be young and hip.

    Dave ‘n George.

    No contest.

  34. wrinkled weasel

    On a purely technical point, when do you stand to lose your seat, i.e, what percentage do the Tories have to be on for you to be thinking of putting on the velour sweatshirt and attending Star Trek conventions?

  35. Pendolino Warrior

    As the others only have 91 I assume “Bugger” has 9pc.

    Have you thought of a coalition with those Buggers?

  36. richard

    @ Wrinkled Weasel;

    Tom’s majority is 10,821 and would require a swing of around 14.5% to the Liberals (his closest competitors) to unseat him.

    The Conservatives would need to achieve a straight Lab/Con swing of around 18-20% in order to unseat him at the next election which, if achieved universally, would result in the Labour party being reduced to around 20 seats.

    Stranger things have happened (see http://tinyurl.com/7psnod) but it’s pretty flipping unlikely.

  37. ani

    Rapunzel.
    Dave and George are young-ish that’s true – but hip? That’s stretching it.
    And how fortunate for us that silly Dave cuddled up soo close to McCain eh?
    Though with Dave…U turns are legion…and his blushes are barely noticeable through that spray tanned face.

  38. Rapunzel

    ani

    I was trying to copy Tom and be ironic, or is it post ironic?

    Did it work?

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